China sharply escalates warplane provocations near Taiwan

China’s military stepped up provocative military aerial incursions near Taiwan on Monday with its biggest sortie to date, sending 58 warplanes, including 12 nuclear-capable bombers, inside the island’s air defense zone, the Taiwan Defense Ministry said.

The flights followed earlier flights Friday and Saturday into the same southern air defense zone, in what Chinese state media called practice for a military assault on Taiwan, an island state 100 miles off the southern Chinese coast that Beijing considers part of its sovereign territory.

The incursions Monday, in two waves, were the largest so far in what appears to be a campaign of coercion directed by Beijing. The flights bring the total aircraft flying into the air defense zone since late last week to 136 and represent an escalation of tension by the People’s Liberation Army.

“The United States is very concerned by the People’s Republic of China’s provocative military activity near Taiwan, which is destabilizing, risks miscalculations, and undermines regional peace and stability,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price in a statement Saturday. “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.”

According to the Taiwan ministry, the flights on Monday included 52 aircraft during the day and four J-16 jets during the evening. In addition to 12 H-6 bombers, the daytime flights included 34 J-16s, two Su-30 jets, two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft and two KJ-500 airborne warning and control aircraft, the ministry said on its website.

Taiwanese interceptor jets were scrambled in response and air defense missile systems were deployed in response. The Taiwanese military also issued warnings to the Chinese aircraft to leave the area.

Earlier saber-rattling incursions took place Sunday when 16 jets, including eight J-16 and four Su-30 fighters, along with two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare planes and two KJ-500 airborne warning and control aircraft flew close to the island, the Taiwan defense ministry said on Twitter.

That mass incursion following a total of 38 PLA aircraft on Friday and 39 aircraft on Saturday, also a mix of fighters and electronic warfare and monitoring aircraft.

Chinese state media has said the chaotic U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan is a sign that the Biden administration would not come to the aid of its unofficial ally. China has told Taiwanese leaders they will be abandoned by the United States in ways similar to the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan that fell to the Taliban militia in 11 days.

The increased air incursions are part of what Chinese state media called routine and normal military exercises aimed at deterring Taiwanese forces and “foreign interference,” the nationalist, state-controlled Global Times newspaper said. The record-breaking number of aircraft incursions also was a response to the dispatch of U.S. and allied aircraft carriers near the island.

The USS Ronald Reagan and USS  Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike groups sailed near Taiwan on Sept. 27, according to news reports.

Menacing messaging

“Flying these high-risk sorties near Taiwan is just another way of dictating terms, contrary to all their commitments to resolve the Taiwan question peacefully through dialogue,” said David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific affairs. “This mode of messaging is especially dangerous because the people making these decisions in Beijing think in terrestrial terms â€" they think these actions are slow-moving and reversible.”

The danger of a conflict breaking out is greater when aircraft are used in messaging, he said. Unlike ships, planes are fragile and even small collisions with intercepting Taiwanese aircraft could lead to disastrous outcomes.

“Intercepts are dicey things; determining what constitutes a hostile act is never easy,” said Mr. Stilwell, a former Air Force F-16 pilot. “And flying armed combat aircraft at Taiwan, which is obligated to intercept inbound PLA aircraft with armed combat aircraft of its own, is downright reckless.”

Most of the earlier aerial incursions by the Chinese involved reconnaissance jets or bombers.

“Pointing combat aircraft with forward-firing ordnance at each other is a great way to send the wrong message,” Mr. Stilwell said.

Rick Fisher, a Chinese military affairs expert, said the Communist regime in Beijing is now in its fourth year of escalating military pressure against Taiwan aimed at demoralizing and coercing 23 million people on the island.

“The Chinese Communist Party is using this crude military pressure as part of an orchestra of coercion, [one] that includes a massive insidious propaganda global political campaign to erase any recognition of a free Taiwan and the weaponization of its political, economic and cultural relations with Taiwan,” said Mr. Fisher, with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, a think tank.

The stepped-up flights also are designed to improve the PLA’s joint warfighting operations and strategies.

Mr. Fisher believes the intimidation efforts from Beijing will only increase.

“The PLA is barely getting started with its military coercion,” he said. “It should be expected that future exercises will include multiple aircraft carriers supporting simultaneous amphibious assaults, to include use of anti-ship ballistic missiles and perhaps anti-satellite demonstrations.”

The United States should consider creating a new and closer relationship with Taiwan to deter military aggression, Mr. Fisher said.

China’s leadeship is “clearly preparing to wage war to destroy the democratic future chosen by the vast majority of Taiwanese,” Mr. Fisher said. “It is overdue for the United States to consider a new relationship with Taiwan that will allow for a revival of Taiwan-U.S. military cooperation sufficient to defeat and thus deter a Chinese invasion.”

A ‘declaration of sovereignty’

The Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party newspaper, said the aerial effort is “a clear and unmistakable declaration of China’s sovereignty over the island.”

The warplanes “were not a guard of honor,” the newspaper said.

“They are fighting forces aimed at actual combat,” the newspaper stated. ”The warplanes that gathered over the [Taiwan Strait] were possibly dispatched from different airports, showing the strong ability of the PLA to form a wartime air attack.”

The recent mass air incursions are a major increase in the number of flights into the air defense zone.

Until last week, the PLA was conducting incursions on a near-daily basis using one or two aircraft.

“The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it did in Beijing in 1949,” Global Times states, referring to the civil war that ended with Chinese Nationalist forces ousted from the mainland and taking refuge on Taiwan.

Mr. Price, the State Department spokesman, said the United States has an abiding interest in peace and stability across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.

“We will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability,” he said, noting the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act that calls for selling defensive arms to Taiwan and U.S.-China communiques and agreements.

“The U.S. commitment to Taiwan is rock solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region,” Mr. Price said. “We will continue to stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security and values and deepen our ties with democratic Taiwan.”

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